Lockdown effects and influenza pandemic: USA 1918/19
Robert J. Barro: Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities During the Great Influenza Pandemic,1918-1919, in: NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 27049, April 2020.
During the influenza pandemic (“Spanish flu”), many U.S. cities carried out extensive lockdown measures between September 1918 and February 1919: School closures, bans on public gatherings, and isolation/quarantine actions. As a result, the mortality curve flattened somewhat. However, the effect on the development of total mortality was minimal and not statistically significant.