A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics.
Peter Zhixian Lin und Christopher Meissner: A Note on Long-Run Persistence of Public Health Outcomes in Pandemics, in: NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 27119, May 2020.
The authors consider the Covid 19 pandemic to be the largest single threat to global public health since the 1918-20 influenza pandemic. They ask whether the preparation for the Covid 19 pandemic was better than for the so-called “Spanish flu” and whether the mortality of historical pandemics would allow predictions about the mortality of the current Covid 19 pandemic. The authors note that the public health system initially reacted very tenaciously. Higher mortality is more likely to occur in those places where it was also high in 1918-20. While experience with SARS has resulted in lower mortality, distrust of experts, lack of cooperation, overconfidence, and shortages of health care services are likely to lead to higher mortality than in the past.