Nicole El Karoui, Kaouther Hadji, Sarah Kaakai: Simulating long-term impacts of mortality shocks: learning from the cholera pandemic, November 16, 2021.
The aim of this paper is to study the long-term consequence on longevity of a mortality shock. The authors adopt an historical and modeling approach to study how the population evolution following a mortality shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic could impact future mortality rates. In the first of part the paper, they study the several cholera epidemics in France and in England starting from the 1830s, and their impact on the major development of public health at the end of the nineteenth century. In the second part, the authors present the mathematical modeling of stochastic Individual-Based models. Using the R package IBMPopSim, this flexible framework is then applied to simulate the long-term impact of a mortality shock, using a toy model where nonlinear population compositional changes affect future mortality rates.