14 posts

Impact of Delta

Koen B. Pouwels, Emma Pritchard, Philippa C. Matthews, Nicole Stoesser, David W. Eyre, Karina-Doris Vihta, Thomas House, Jodie Hay, John I. Bell, John N. Newton, Jeremy Farrar, Derrick Crook, Duncan Cook, Emma Rourke, Ruth Studley, Tim Peto, Ian Diamond, A. Sarah Walker and the COVID-19 Infection Survey Team: Impact of Delta on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK , in: medRxiv (August 24, 2021),

The effectiveness of BNT162b2, ChAdOx1, and mRNA-1273 vaccines against new SARS-CoV-2 infections requires continuous re-evaluation, given the increasingly dominant Delta variant. The authors investigated the effectiveness of the vaccines in a large community-based survey of randomly selected households across the UK. Continue reading

Awareness of pandemics

Alejandro Buesa, Javier J. Pérez, Daniel Santabárbara: Awareness of pandemics and the impact of Covid-19, in: Banco de España (ed.), Documentos de Trabajo, No. 2123, May 2021.

“Awareness” about the occurrence of viral infectious (or other) tail risks can influence their socioeconomic inter-temporal impacts. A branch of the literature finds that prior lifetime exposure to signicant shocks can affect people and societies, i.e. by changing their perceived probability about the occurrence of an extreme, negative shock in the future. Continue reading

Second ad hoc statement

Gerd Glaeske et al.: 2. Ad hoc-Stellungnahme. Die Pandemie durch SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 – Zentralisierte Willkür: Über den Entwurf eines 4. Bevölkerungsschutzgesetzes, Bremen et al. April 14, 2021.

Résumé of the statement: Continue reading

Lockdowns and Innovation

Enrico Berkes, Olivier Deschenes, Ruben Gaetani, Jeffrey Lin, Christopher Severen: Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic, in: NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 28152 (November 2020), DOI: 10.3386/w28152.

In their article, the authors address the question of whether social distancing harms innovation. They provide an assessment of the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on local inventions. Continue reading

Stay‑at‑home policy is a case of exception fallacy

Ricardo F. Savaris, Guilherme Pumi, Jovani Dalzochio, Rafael Kunst: Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study, in: Scientific Reports 11 (2021) Article 5313, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-84092-1.

A recent mathematical model has suggested that staying at home did not play a dominant role in reducing COVID‑19 transmission. The second wave of cases in Europe, in regions that were considered as COVID‑19 controlled, may raise some concerns. The authors objective was to assess the association between staying at home (%) and the reduction/increase in the number of deaths due to COVID‑19 in several regions in the world. Continue reading

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in Europe

Paul R. Hunter, Felipe J. Colón-González, Julii Brainard, Steven Rushton: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe: A quasi-experimental study, in: medRxiv, July 2020, doi:

The current COVID-19 epidemic is unparalleled in recent history as are the social distancing interventions that have led to a significant halt on the economic and social life of so many countries. However, there is very little empirical evidence about which social distancing measures have the most impact. The authors report a quasi-experimental study of the impact of various interventions for control of the outbreak. Continue reading

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions

Jan M. Brauner et al: Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against Covid-19, in Science 371 (February 2021) no. 6531, pp. 1-8, DOI: 10.1126/science.abd9338.

Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of various NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. The authors collected chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European and non-European countries between January and the end of May 2020.

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Influences of interventions and socioeconomic factors.

Rabail Chaudhry, George Dranitsaris, Talha Mubashir, Justyna Bartoszko, Sheila Riazi: A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes, in: EClinicalMedicine 25 (2020) 100464, DOI:

The authors conducted a country-level exploratoy analysis to assess the impact of timing and nature of national health policies or actions taken on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes.

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The impact of the lockdown: Four Pre-studies

Andrew Atkeson, Karen Kopecky, Tao Zha: Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19, in: NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 27719 (August 2020), DOI 10.3386/w27719.

The authors document four facts about the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide relevant for those studying the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 transmission.

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Social protection in developing countries

International Labour Oraganization (ILO): Social protection responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in developing countries: Strengthening resilience by building universal social protection, May 14, 2020.

Social protection is an indispensable mechanism for delivering support to individuals during the crisis. This document takes a detailed look at the role of social protection measures in addressing the COVID-19 outbreak in developing countries.

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Poverty Reduction Strategies

Briefing Note of the Overseas Development Institute (ODI)

Marcus Manuel, Liam Carson, Emma Samman and Martin Evan: Financing the reduction of extreme poverty post-Covid-19, November 2020.

The Covid-19 pandemic has wiped out years of progress in ending extreme poverty: we forecast an additional 250 million people in extreme poverty by 2030 and expect that it will take 10 years of economic growth just to bring extreme poverty numbers back to where they were before the crisis.

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Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates

Peter Ganong, Pascal Noel, Joseph Vavra: US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic, in: BFI-WP, Nr. 2020-62, May 2020.

The authors used microdata on income together with details of the U.S. unemployment insurance system of each state under the CARES Act to calculate the overall distribution of current insurance benefits.  Continue reading